In this blog I have stated that from the NHS stats, healthy people should be fine, while those who have died are aged 60 and over with health problems.
See: Coronavirus: Lots of people will die because morons do not understand how herd immunity works [LINK].
However, we have seen healthy doctors and nurses die due (it is believed) to be getting a ‘high viral load’.
My understanding of ‘viral load’, is the amount of virus a person gets. So if you were to walk past someone and did get the virus, the principle (from my reading) is you get a tiny amount, and your body fights it, and you become immune.
For doctors and nurses and anyone else who is in contact with sick people with the Coronavirus, they are exposed to far more of the virus and so, get a ‘high viral load’. This high load, can be far too much for the body to fight back, and so rather than recovering, the person may die.
When we get stats from those who have died, we will see some numbers from healthy people such as doctors and nurses who have died due to this.
It is a reason why doctors and nurses and those who have contact with those who have got the Coronavirus need the most protection.
One problem I have found is listening to the regular PM show on BBC radio 4 show each day is research seems to conflict. One day, they say you can get the virus instantly, while I heard one study it could be two hours off contact one needs to get the virus. Though, I thought this study sounded odd as I would have presumed the virus was rather easy to get.
One article on the subject is: Does a high viral load or infectious dose make covid-19 worse? [LINK]
One study suggested that those with the Coronavirus should wear masks to prevent others getting the Coronavirus. They stated while the masks were not 100% going to stop the spread, they were seen to give a significant effect on the reduction.
One question we should be asking, is are we protecting the vulnerable enough?
I fail to see the point in stopping people sunbathing [LINK] as this nonsense about going out seems to be only a tool to make people feel they are doing something. In the same way we tell people to hide under a table in a nuclear war.
While this lock-down seems to be something thought up in a moment with no real (from what I can see) evidence to suggest this is what we should be doing, the harm it is doing could be huge [LINK].
The problem we have is that we have over 3,939 deaths [LINK]. 92% are aged 60 or over with health problems. This means we have many people who have not been isolated sufficiently not to get the Coronavirus.
Some may say this lock-down is the best way to protect the vulnerable, but I fear it is no more than a poor attempt to achieve something. In the same way, I could throw a egg cup of water on a house on fire. Yes, I have tried something, and in time the fire will burn out, once there is no more house, and I can claim once the fire has gone out that it was evidence that my egg of water achieved this.
If it was me I would have looked into producing a report on the vast majority who have died and are sick in hospital with the Coronavirus, and concluded how they got the Coronavirus when they should be in isolation.
Questions in the report should be such as, were they in isolation? if not, why not? Were they aware they had health conditions? What processes were in place to protect them. And so on.
We seem far too fixated on playing silly games with the healthy, and having silly middle class twits police each other, rather than dealing with what is most important.
If we were effective in protecting the vulnerable, then we should see far fewer people in hospital from the Coronavirus as well as fewer deaths.
Some of course may unavoidably get the virus, such as those who are already in hospital.
Care homes are also vulnerable, as they often have many vulnerable people staying. Many will have health problems and be of a much greater age. And staff come and go. Yet, we are seeing, with all the care they are committed to, some care homes have had the virus.
As I post this, I read this: Coronavirus: Calls for priority shopping deliveries for NI elderly [LINK].
We are at 6th April 2020, yet we are reading how the vulnerable are not getting deliveries in Northern Ireland.
This simply demonstrates while we are messing about with a lock-down and spending our time policing each other who are sunbathing, we are not doing the things that matter.
If the vulnerable cannot get deliveries, then they have no option to go to the shops, and so increases the risk to exposure to the virus.
Of course the more governments mess about, and have people go on TV and get hysterical about the fact someone is walking on there own, in a field miles from anyone, the more it covers up the fact that in reality, things that matter are not being done.
Supermarkets that pointlessly expose people to the virus by standing them in a line outside the supermarkets, could be doing something far more important and deliver food to people much quicker and safer.
My friend who works for a very well known and very posh supermarket in the UK on home deliveries, was told (or at least this is what she told me she was told), that you have to put the bags on the door and ring the bell, and the customer then has to look inside the bags before she (or he) can get on there way. As she said, it means she will be in front of the customer, and so possibly spreading the virus.
And one must presume that people at home could be the vulnerable group or may even have the virus and so are self isolating.
The BBC has this article: Coronavirus: When will we know if the UK lockdown is working? [LINK].
The data they have seems to suggest that if a person has this, then it could be 28 days before they can no longer spread it (unless I read that wrong).
So in theory, one could conclude the lock-down cannot be lifted until 28 days after the last reported case of the Coronavirus or/and the population of the country (in this case the UK) has achieved a point where enough people have had the Coronavirus to act as a ‘firebreak’ or ‘herd immunity’, in that enough people have had the virus, that it cannot spread, or if it does spread, it is easy to treat, and stop. Of course if a vaccine is developed and given to people, this would also mean a lift on the lock-down. However this could be 12 months or longer away.
It is possible too that a lock-down may be removed if we have an effective cure. We have had in the news reports of many medicines being effective at making those who are very unless, better again. However, this could still mean some will not live as they are too weak. It would be interesting if a government would remove a lock-down on the reliance of medication alone.