Coronavirus: Have we used the control (lock-down) based on the presumption everybody is equal?
See: Prof Chris Whitty: How to Control a Pandemic [LINK]
Prof Chris Whitty explains how to Control a Pandemic, and that the model that is used is to bring down the ‘R’ or ‘R0’, being reproduction number of passing the virus to another person. The idea or model, is that you bring the ‘R’ under 1, and this means the virus burns out.
The lock-down, is to reduce the ‘R’ to under 1, and thus the Coronavirus burns out.
This would be fine if everybody who got the Coronavirus had the same death rate. So a healthy 18 year old, would have the same outcome as a 90 with lots of heath problems. This would be the case with Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) or mad cow disease, where most (if not all) those who got the disease would die.
However Coronavirus seems to affect the elderly who have health problems (according to NHS stats) [LINK].
So is the system we have in place incorrect?
See: Coronavirus: Lots of people will die because morons do not understand how herd immunity works [LINK].
My feeling over this lock-down is we are working on a model that does not take into account the fact that this is high risk to elderly with health problems, but extremely low risk to healthy people under 60.
In reality, we seem to be protecting millions of healthy people in the UK for no reason, while doing a rather poor job at protecting the vulnerable.
While this virus has meant deaths. Though, it must be noted that those who have died, not all have been tested, and so, some will be presumed to have the virus. That worldwide, an estimated 300,000 to 650,000 people die from flu each year [LINK].