Coronavirus: Deaths in Sweden may jump, but deaths should be fewer in the long run
It is reported deaths in Sweden have gone up 18% to 333 [LINK]. This would be expected, as the population is getting exposed quickly to the virus.
The numbers of dead would probably to be the same if not more if they opted for a full isolation system, as we have in the UK. The reason being is that some will die who unknowingly have health problems, while others who are vulnerable will be exposed at some point. Just as in the UK were in care homes, even with all the precautions, vulnerable people are getting the virus.
However, in the long run, in Sweden, one would expect that the “herd immunity” system, should mean that within weeks, one would expect the vulnerable to be protected, and the virus burn out, while in the UK the virus will still be active putting the vulnerable still at risk.
Tom Britton, a mathematics professor from Stockholm University, warned yesterday that its possible a million Swedes are already infected.
He used these numbers to suggest that by the end of the month up to five million people could be infected. Pressure on hospitals will then peak two weeks earlier, around April 15.
‘China succeeded in [reducing its R value] by very comprehensive measures, and very quickly, so that less than 1 per cent will be infected in Wuhan,’ he said. ‘I am not convinced that we will be as effective in Sweden.’
The risk of course with the approach China has taken, and other countries that follow, is that once you relax isolation, one may expect the virus to come back again, if you still have many people who have not been infected and so not got immunity to it.
And of course, the danger is the virus develops into a version more dangerous virus, that kills not only the vulnerable but many healthy people as well, as was the case with the Spanish Flu [LINK] [LINK] [LINK].