Coronavirus: Could we get a more devastating second wave?
See ‘1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary’ [LINK].
The history of the 1918 Spanish Flu, was that it spread like the Coronaviru, county to country, with many getting it the first time. However it came back again, but more deadly, and killed many who did not get t the first time.
The newstatesman.com reports ‘The real reason the UK government pursued “herd immunity” – and why it was abandoned’ [LINK].
My reading from the article suggests that you have a gable. On one side you let as many get the virus, and if a second wave comes, far fewer will die, as they will have developed a natural immunity. Of course this means many get ill and some die.
But on the other hand, you slow the virus up, fewer get the virus, and in theory few die. But, the problem is if you get the devastating second wave, as many could die (a huge amount), as they have no immunity, and those that die in a devastating second wave could include many healthy people, and not just the vulnerable an in a first wave.
However the second method seems to rely on having a working vaccine in time, to protect against a devastating second wave, should one develop.
Sweden seems to be be doing the ‘herd immunity’, by protecting the vulnerable, but letting the healthy get the virus [LINK]. So far, this approach sems to have resulted in low numbers f death, but one presumes high number of people getting the virus. One will be interested to see if in Sweden the virus burns out, and if a devastating second wave does arrive in Sweden, one would expect that they will have very few deaths from it, with so many having (one presumes) immunity to the virus fro the first wave.
The article suggests that the ‘lock-down’ approach to dealing with this virus was influenced by a report by the ‘Imperial College London’ [LINK] (this link may be a much newer report).
Having quickly read the report [LINK] it seems (from my quick reading) to be based on the idea that the virus will enter a country, then slowly burn out. It does not (again from my reading) deal with factors such as the virus re-turning from other countries, nor if they fear a second wave.